Oupai Home (603833): Report quality is excellent, Q3 chain growth rate can be expected
Event: The company released an interim report: the first half of 2019 achieved 55 revenue.
1 billion, a year-on-year increase of +13.
72%, net profit attributable to mother 6.
33 billion, a year-on-year increase of +15.
04%, deducting non-net profit 5.
95 billion, a year-on-year increase of +15.
Opinion: Overall, the company achieved revenue of 19Q1 / 19Q2 / 19H1, respectively.
1 billion, an annual increase of 15.
57% / 12.
51% / 13.
72%; 19Q1 / 19Q2 / 19H1 respectively achieved net profit attributable to mother 0.
33 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.
14% / 13.
48% / 15.
04%; 19Q1 / 19Q2 / 19H1 respectively realized non-net profit deduction of 0.
10,000 yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.
96% / 14.
97% / 15.
In our opinion, this is a relatively high quality semi-annual report. Although there is no specific breakdown of the income of these businesses, we can observe an increase in cash received from sales of goods and provision of labor services19.
3% to 62.
4.3 billion (exceeding revenue growth rate), the cash-to-cash ratio increased to 113% from 109% in the same period last year, and the advance receipts of the advance accounts 19Q2 increased by 32% month-on-month, far exceeding the industry average.Deeper.
As the company has not restructured to adjust the growth rate according to channels, we estimate that H1 bulk business growth will increase by about 53%, 2C business will grow by about 8%, and H1 revenue will increase by 13.
7%, can be split into 6 by channel.
5% (major business contribution) +4.
2% (distribution + direct sales) + 3% (contribution of assembly business).
We estimate that the H1 revenue of the cabinet business will grow by approximately 3 per year.
5%, cabinet retail Q2 significantly improved about Q1, 51 new stores opened in Q2, as of 630 cabinets (including cabinet clothing integrated stores) a total of 2,330, of which A / B / C cities have stores each Family.
On the whole, we believe that the revenue growth rate of European-style cabinet retail business significantly exceeds the industry’s internal competition. The core reasons are in three aspects: 1.
In terms of channels, while deepening the retail channels, comprehensively promote the “omni-channel marketing” strategy, the transformation of old kitchenware, e-commerce, communities, communities, retail projects, home improvement, and the establishment of micro-shops, communities and other drainage stores.At present, it has reached 455, effectively intercepting customers at the front end, such as second-hand housing and old renovation, to seize more market share;
Marketing strategy: Deepen the “cabinet +” strategy, work hard on space expansion and kitchen appliances, and comprehensively increase the customer value of retail customers. We estimate that the retail customer value of cabinets in 19H1 will increase by about 7%.
In terms of marketing methods: adhere to the 15800 package as a drainage tool to compete for market share and further increase the market share during the period when the industry’s prosperity is declining.
The cabinet business first piloted the distributor model. We also mentioned in “Introducing the Urban Partner Model and Reforming Traditional Retail Channels Ahead”, which we consider to be a “three-win” alternative, 1.
Distributors may have their own resources, connections or operating advantages in terms of financial strength, or in areas not covered by first-level agents such as shopping malls for a period of time, while first-level agents have their ownThe strength 杭州桑拿 of the two sides can be combined to release more energy.
At the same time, with regard to the decline in the overall prosperity and profitability of the original first-tier agents in these two industries, the expected opening of all stores has decreased. Dating distributors can increase the local influence of the brand and increase their year-end assessment rankings.For distributors, joining Europa in this mode, although the gross profit margin is not as good as that of the first-level agent, but relatively less tasks and responsibilities need to be undertaken, and there is no need to pay the transfer fee (transfer in the A-level market)The fee is even as high as millions or tens of millions, which is also the greatest strength of some capable agents to join Europa).
At the same time, for the European headquarters, to some extent, it can solve the problem of some agents’ weak fighting ability or their own ability after achieving financial freedom. Therefore, it can be said that it is a win-win way for the three parties.
We are optimistic about this model. It is expected that the company will try a small knife in this area this year and open 200 new stores. After the model is mature, it will be expanded to other categories and even whole packages.
Wardrobes We expect that Q2 will grow by about 21%. Q2 will open 149 new stores and terminate 630. There will be 2,240 closet (custom-made) stores, of which 318/649/1273 will be opened in A / B / C cities.
Q2 has improved in Q1, but according to our grassroots investigation, Q2’s wardrobe order index Q1 has steadily increased slightly, so we believe that this statement is only temporary.
In terms of assembly business, we expect the company’s H1 statement to achieve revenue1.
500 million (including cabinets of 0.
55 billion, closet 0.
500 million, other categories 0.
4.5 billion), the overall operating situation is fully in line with expectations.
Judging from the investment situation, there are currently 210 large home furnishing stores and 43 large customers.
The company’s headquarters changes model innovation from the entire process of product development, training assistance, order delivery, and service, reducing the biology and error rate of the business of custom products, and solving the service pain points of home improvement companies.
We believe that at the current point of time, there are three core tasks in the package business: (1) how the company balances large package home agents and retail agents; (2) how to improve efficiency, reduce errors, and reduce costs ((Such as further standardization of products, etc.) (3) how to use the assembly channel to accelerate the expansion of categories.
We expect the company’s EPS to be 4 in 2019-2020.
94 yuan, corresponding to PE for 2019-2020 is 24.
99 times, the company is leading the industry in diversified channels, expanding categories, and supply chain integration. Considering that the company may become the future leader of the two trillion home / home improvement industry, the current market value of 47.4 billion is significantly underestimated and maintained”Buy” level.
Risk warning: The real estate boom is lower than expected, and business promotion is lower than expected.