Call: 0123456789 | Email: info@example.com

Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Expansion is slightly lower, expected to maintain steady growth


Moutai, Guizhou (600519): Expansion is slightly lower, expected to maintain steady growth
Investment Highlights: Event: Moutai announced its 2019 third quarter report, with total revenue of 635 in the first three quarters.09 million yuan, an increase of 15 in ten years.53%; net profit attributable to mother 304.55 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.13%. Among them, Q3 total income was 223.36 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.28%; net profit attributable to mother is 105.40,000 yuan, an increase of 17 years.11%.In terms of products, the revenue of Moutai in the first three quarters increased every year.3%, the income of series wine increases by 18.6%.  Q3 revenue was slightly lower than expected, affected by the increase in the amount of involvement.Q3 revenue growth was slightly lower than market expectations, mainly due to the lower than expected Maotai liquor shipments.Extending the direct sales budget exceeded expectations, at least reducing the company’s Q3 requirement that dealers carry out the remaining planned amount of the year in advance, but it is estimated that some dealers are replacing.Moutai liquor dealers decreased by 99 in the first half of the year, and Q3 decreased by 23.  Direct sales volume is slightly lower than expected, expecting direct sales volume in the fourth quarter.The company has adjusted its channels since last year. The amount of distributors is nearly 6,000 tons. Excluding the amount allocated to the group sales company (not more than 3,000 tons), the remaining 3000-4000 tons market is expected to increase direct sales.The company strengthened the supply of direct sales channels such as supermarkets and e-commerce in September, and the market expects higher Q3 direct sales.According to the statement, direct sales revenue in the first three quarters decreased by 19 year-on-year.8%, direct sales accounted for 4.9%, compared with 7 in the same period last year.0% is down.It is estimated that the direct sales volume in the first three quarters did not exceed 1,130 tons, of which the direct sales volume of Q3 was accelerated compared with the previous quarter, but the direct sales volume was late, and the direct sales volume of Q4 was expected.  The price of Maotai liquor has returned to a reasonable level, and the ex-factory price has room for improvement.Before the National Day holiday, the approval price of the whole box of Maotai fell from a high of 2700 yuan in September to 2100 yuan, and rose to about 2300 yuan after the holiday.The drop in the approval price was mainly due to the company’s requirement to implement the annual remaining plan in advance at the end of September, and the dealers expanded due to the pressure of repayment. At the same time, the company expanded the direct sales layout through e-commerce, supermarket and other channels in September.Due to Moutai’s limited supply in 19 years and strong demand, it is expected that it will be difficult to see more significant changes in the approval price.At present, the difference between the approval price and the ex-factory price is still continuous. Under the stable and reasonable replacement of the approval price, there is room for improvement in the ex-factory price in the next 1-2 years.  Profitability has steadily increased, and future trends are expected to maintain.The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2019 has temporarily increased to zero.27% to 91.8%, during the period, the cost rate drops by 1.16% to 10.7%, net profit margin increased by 2.96% to 47.95%.  Among them, each time Q3 gross margin drops by 0.66% to 91.2%, which is expected to be mainly affected by the short-term product structure change, and the net interest rate will increase by 1.54% to 47.03%.In the future, through the further landing of direct sales and the continuous upgrade of product structure, the company’s profitability will promote a stable and rising trend.  Indicators such as advance receipts were benign and financial performance was stable.Advance receipts for the third quarter of 2019 increased by 0 each year.9 trillion, a decrease of 10 trillion from the previous quarter. The decrease from the previous quarter was mainly due to the company’s quarterly reduction in payment requirements.The total revenue 深圳桑拿网 of the third quarter of 2019 + △ advance receipts will increase by 18 each year.3%, higher than the increase in real income.The first three quarters of sales receipts increased by 14 each year.8%, basically consistent with the growth rate of income.Net operating cash flow in the first three quarters decreased year by year3.2%, mainly affected by deposits from financial companies.  Investment suggestion: Maintain “overweight” rating.Moutai adopted a number of measures to stabilize the approval price, which is conducive to the company’s more healthy development.Although Q3 has promoted the promotion of direct sales, it has landed relatively late, and expects Q4 direct sales volume.The company’s certainty remains.It is estimated that the operating income for 2019-2021 will be 890/1028/1156 trillion, exceeding the growth rate of 15.4%, 15.5%, 12.5%; net profit attributable to mothers is 437.51 / 516 / 59.5 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24 in decades.1%, 18.1%, 15.2%, the corresponding EPS is 34.79/41.08/47.33 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.  Risk warning: severe economic downturn; the direct selling plan falls short of expectations; industry policy impact.