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Yu Yongding: Without economic growth, the unemployment problem cannot be solved at all


Yu Yongding: Without economic growth, the unemployment problem cannot be solved at all
According to data released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of employed persons in March fell by more than 6% compared with January, which means that most people have not resumed work.How to view the current employment prospects and how to help the unemployed?Sauna Night Network interviewed Yu Yongding, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences around these issues.Yu Yongding believes that the actual unemployment situation in China may be more serious than the statistics show. After the epidemic is basically controlled and the work has been basically resumed, there is still a long way to help the existing large number of unemployed peopleCrowd).Since March, the United States, Germany, Japan and many other countries have taken the form of direct payment to supplement the public.Recently, China’s economics community has sharply sent money directly to help people in difficulty.Should China follow the example of foreign subsidies for paying money, including the hard-to-reach for the unemployed?”Working class in Western countries are faced with the problems of tax empowerment, low savings, and substantial expenditures. At present, the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries are in the stage of anti-epidemic.Stay at home.However, China has basically passed the stage of anti-epidemic relief that Western countries are currently in, and now it no longer makes sense to send money again.”Yu Yongding also said that from the perspective of selecting supplementary objects, there are certain difficulties in directly redeeming supplements in China.”So, how to help the difficult people including the unemployed?Yu Yongding suggested that first of all, the existing overall social security system should be put into operation as soon as possible, to completely cover the unemployed again, and to rebuild the difficulties of urban unemployed and migrant workers forced to stay at home.”For the source of relief funds, the central government can set up an anti-epidemic relief relief project.”Yu Yongding said incrementally that short-term relief measures are not sustainable. To fundamentally rescue low-income people and solve the unemployment problem, the key is to have certain economic growth.”Similarly, the release of consumer coupons can stimulate demand in the short term, but the fundamental way to stimulate consumption lies in economic growth.”Economic growth is the last word. With economic growth, employment opportunities will increase, residents’ income will increase, and consumption will increase accordingly, thus forming a virtuous circle.Without economic growth, it is impossible to solve the unemployment problem and rescue the disadvantaged groups.”To make money, we must first understand the purpose of making money.” Unemployment.How to view the current employment prospects?Yu Yongding: According to the data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, from January to March this year, 2.29 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, a reduction of at least 95 people, and the three-month decline has narrowed.The unemployment rate in the urban survey in March was 5.9%, a slight decline from the previous month.At the end of the first quarter, urban unemployment registered in the country3.66%.The national registered unemployment rate and the urban survey unemployment rate are two different concepts, at least they should be able to improve and reflect the true unemployment situation.But at least, because of statistical coverage issues, people generally feel that China ‘s unemployment situation may be more serious than the unemployment rate figures reflect.According to 2018 figures, the national employment is 7.8 billion, towns 4.4 billion, migrant workers 2.900 million (going out to work 1)700 million), 2 billion farmers.Although the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has not released the specific figures of the unemployed, it is not difficult to imagine that due to the impact of the epidemic, China ‘s unemployment problem is very serious.Of course, as the economy resumes growth, the number of unemployed will decline significantly, but the problems of unemployment and invisible unemployment cannot be solved immediately.In fact, after the epidemic situation is basically controlled and the resumption of production and production is basically achieved, there is still a problem of how to rescue a large number of existing unemployed people (not unemployed people in the past) for a long time.Sauna Night Net: In the recent Chinese economics community, there is a lot of talk about direct payment of subsidies, including the trapped people within the unemployed.Should China follow the example of sending money abroad to its citizens?Yu Yongding: First of all, we need to distinguish clearly the purpose of making money-is it to fight against the epidemic or to stimulate consumption (or to stimulate the economy)?During the period of anti-epidemic, money was released to alleviate the difficulties.In order to prevent and control the epidemic, the government closed the city and asked the public to reduce their travel and isolate their homes.However, working-class workers in Western countries are faced with the problems of tax empowerment, low savings and large rigid expenditure.Once the factory is closed, workers lose their source of income and life may be in trouble.In the event that the entire economic activity has basically ceased to function, the state must provide emergency relief (money) in funds.Otherwise, even if there is money in the hands of the working class, if they are not confident about the future, they will insist on working to make money.Not long ago, the subway in Tokyo, Japan was still very crowded, but when the government announced that it would issue 100,000 yen supplement to each resident from May, the people who crowded the subway suddenly disappeared.At present, the United States, Germany, Japan and other countries are in the stage of anti-epidemic. The reasons for the government ‘s money to bail out the bailouts are to make residents feel at home at home.Even so, there are still voices of moral hazard caused by excessive money in some of these countries.However, China has basically passed the stage of anti-epidemic relief in Western countries.According to the changes of the epidemic situation, the Chinese economy can be divided into three stages: the first stage is the period of anti-epidemic, in order to control the spread of the epidemic, the government must take measures to seal the city, seal the area, and seal the community;In many areas, production has resumed; the third stage is that the epidemic is brought under control and economic activity throughout the country returns to normal.Now China is entering the third stage.From a nationwide perspective, production has gradually recovered and the factory has basically resumed work.That is to say, we have passed the period to fight the epidemic and rescue the hardships by sending money, and now sending money no longer has the meaning of relief from the epidemic.Of course, we cannot rule out the possibility of repeated epidemics.If the epidemic situation recurs in the future, we will return to the period of production and work stoppage again.In terms of the selection of supplementary objects, there are also considerable disadvantages in generating supplements in China.When compensating, the first question is: to whom does this money go-is it like a millionaire and a poor person, do people have a share of compensation, or only to the poor?If it is only distributed to people in difficulty, who should be rescued and who should not be rescued, how to identify the objects that should be rescued?Even with various reasons for making money, it is still difficult to operate.In Japan, not only all Japanese nationals but also all foreigners living in Japan are supplemented with 100,000 yen.The reason for the Japanese government ‘s money is simple: in order to effectively prevent and control the epidemic, let everyone-whether Japanese or foreigners living in Japan-stay at home.Not only that, but the method of generation is also very simple: the government sends out an “application invitation letter” to everyone based on the resident ‘s ID card.”See Wujin”) procedure.”We need to make the existing overall social security system operational as soon as possible” Sauna Yewang: So how do you help the unemployed in your opinion?Yu Yongding: For the unemployed, we can be divided into two types: the urban unemployed people who are insured, the uninsured people, and in addition, the urban unemployed people and migrant workers under contract.Before deciding whether to pay or not, we should first consider how to play the role of the existing social security system. The social security systems related to the issues under discussion mainly include the unemployment insurance system, the minimum living security system for urban residents, and the rural social security system.First of all, for the urban unemployed people participating in the insurance, unemployment insurance funds should pay unemployment insurance for them.According to state regulations, migrant workers in participating enterprises should be paid a full-time living subsidy, so that they can return to their hometowns to work after leaving their original units, and have certain living security.The outbreak occurred during the Spring Festival holiday, and it was during this period that migrant workers returned home for the Chinese New Year. Migrant workers who have not yet returned to the city can temporarily stay in the countryside, which is considered to be an original form of employment insurance.After the epidemic is over, they can return to the city to work.Second, subsidies are provided to employees who have participated in the insurance and have never been unemployed, but whose wages and incomes have been severely affected by the epidemic.In order to reduce the unemployment rate, the Ministry of People’s Insurance has introduced “stabilization of job subsidies” in recent years.Enterprises that take effective measures to layoffs, reduce layoffs, and stabilize jobs can apply for stable job subsidies. The subsidy standard is 40% of the unit ‘s unemployment insurance premiums, and the required funds are all spent from the unemployment insurance fund.Although its rationality is worthy of study, this supplement can indeed reduce the relief effect in the current situation.In fact, in countries such as Germany, the government encourages companies not to lay off workers because of the epidemic, and the government bears a significant percentage of wages.Third, bail out the unemployed through the Dibao system.The National Convention on April 21 stated that the urban and rural families who meet the minimum security requirements should be guaranteed, and the unemployed people who did not participate in unemployment insurance and whose income was lower than the minimum security standard should be reduced to reduce the minimum security.Etc.It is practical to use the local minimum security system to release relief to local unemployed.The introduction of this policy is very timely, and the parties concerned should rebuild it as soon as possible.Fourth, we can use the channels of targeted poverty alleviation to help people in rural areas who are in difficulty due to loss of work.Fifth, through the unemployment insurance system to rescue unemployed urban unemployed people and businesses.The number of people participating in China’s unemployment insurance in 2018 was 1.964.3 billion people, compared with the national employment population7.800 million people, the insurance rate is only 25%.The low rate of participation is surprising.In addition, the gradual surplus of unemployment insurance funds was 581.7 billion at the end of 2018.The low participation rate and large balance seem to indicate that a large number of enterprises that really need to participate in unemployment insurance do not participate in unemployment insurance.If you assume this 1.9.6 billion people are urban residents, and the insurance rate for urban residents is only 44.5%.In fact, there are a large number of unemployed urban employees in China.What about unemployed urban unemployed?Considering that there are a lot of surpluses in the unemployment insurance fund, as an extraordinary measure during the extraordinary period, can the government consider using some way to borrow the surplus of the unemployment insurance money to be used as the unemployment insurance money of the uninsured unemployed people?Can the “stable job allowance” be extended to small and micro enterprises that are not participating but are still struggling.Sixth, there is another ethnic group that cannot be ignored.With the improvement of the epidemic, a large number of migrant workers have returned to the city, but some people are living on the streets because they cannot find jobs.Local governments must make use of the existing rescue mechanism or allocate special funds to help these people return to their hometowns or perform other resettlement.In short, we must first reuse the existing social security system and channels, and make the entire social security system operational as soon as possible, completely covering the unemployed, and eliminating the difficulties of urban unemployed and migrant workers forced to stay at home.In addition, before the economic operation fully returns to normal, as an extraordinary measure during the extraordinary period, the government and financial institutions should also consider how to postpone debt repayment and reduce various rents, interest and public service fees to help low- and middle-income working class, especiallyIt is the young people with low income and low savings, who usually have large rigid expenditures, and small and medium-sized industrial and commercial workers to overcome the difficulties.However, we should also see that all relief measures are temporary measures and have no sustainability.For example, the nearly 600 billion US dollars in unemployment insurance surplus cannot be maintained for too long.To fundamentally rescue low-income people and solve the unemployment problem fundamentally, the key is to have the necessary economic growth.Without economic growth, the problem of unemployment cannot be solved.”Financial establishment of special expenditure items to help people in difficulty” Sauna Yewang: In addition to the coverage of the existing social security system, is there any other way to help the unemployed to bail out?Yu Yongding: While making full use of the existing social security system to help the unemployed, it should also consider using financial funds to help the unemployed and invisible unemployed people who are not covered by the existing social security system, especially those who are not covered by the social security system.Invisible jobless people.We do not know how much bailout funds the government ‘s finances actually spent in the first quarter.From the national fiscal budget for the first quarter announced by the government, it can be seen that social security and employment expenditures are 983.700 million US dollars, a year-on-year decline of 0.7%.This number is staggering.It stands to reason that under this project, government expenditure should have increased significantly rather than decreased.Perhaps, the government’s bailout funds are scattered under other expenditure items.This year, whether it is the finance of the central government or local governments is certainly very difficult, but a lot of money must be spent.For example, doctors who have made tremendous contributions in the process of anti-epidemic disease must be fully rewarded, and community workers loyal to their duties should also be fully compensated.All of this money should be mainly paid for by the central government.It is not difficult for the central government to solve the financial constraints that local governments cannot overcome.After the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the Ministry of Finance established a fund (fund) for reconstruction and reconstruction after the Wenchuan earthquake.Aiming at helping the hard-hit people suffering from sudden disease epidemics, the central government can also follow the practice of the year and establish an anti-epidemic relief aid project.Relevant temporary expenditures are branched under this project as part of the general public budget.”The fundamental way to stimulate consumption lies in economic growth.” Sauna Yewang: What’s your comment on the local government’s way of issuing consumption vouchers?Yu Yongding: The method of issuing consumer vouchers is different from that of issuing money. Its main purpose and function is to stimulate demand.From the perspective of stimulating consumption, it makes sense to release consumer coupons rather than to accumulate money.Local governments can obtain consumption vouchers based on their own financial resources.Issuing consumer vouchers can stimulate demand in the short term and can be used as a temporary method, but its role is limited.The fundamental way to stimulate consumption lies in economic growth.From an economic perspective, there are two main factors that affect consumption: the current income situation and the expectation of future income.From the perspective of income, consumption is a function of income, and the increase in conversion income will increase consumption.However, the relationship between consumption and income is not increased every year, because consumption will be affected by expectations-even if income is increased now, if everyone is not optimistic about future economic expectations, they may also save money and reduce consumption.Similarly, if you are optimistic about economic expectations, even if your income is not very high now, you may be willing to spend in advance.Therefore, only by improving the current income status of residents and the expectations of the future economy will everyone be willing to spend money, and both of these will ultimately require economic growth to achieve.My view has always been that economic growth is the last word. With economic growth, employment opportunities will increase, income will increase, and consumption will increase accordingly, thus forming a virtuous circle.Without economic growth, it is impossible to fundamentally solve the unemployment problem, and it is also impossible to alleviate the difficult and difficult people.Of course, the growth I am talking about is not blindly pursuing the growth of political achievements, not the growth of “digging and burying pits”, but the growth that benefits people’s livelihood, strengthens economic security, and promotes the growth of independent innovation.In a word: sustainable growth.Sauna, Ye Wang Hou Runfang Editor Chen Li proofreading Liu Baoqing