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BTG Hotel (600258) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Non-steady growth in the third quarter, short-term economic growth, long-term franchise expansion


BTG Hotel (600258) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Non-steady growth in the third quarter, short-term economic growth, long-term franchise expansion
Non-performance in the third quarter increased by 4%, which was slightly lower than expected in the first three quarters, and the company achieved revenue of 62.3 ppm / -2.2%, return to mother’s performance 7.2 ppm / -10.3% (deduct non-increase by 3.8%), EPS0.73 yuan, slightly worse than expected.Q3, the company’s revenue / performance was downgraded by 5.3% / 23.8%, but deducting non-performance increased by 1.5%, mainly due to the partial disposal of Yanjing Hotel in 18Q3 brought 1.2.6 billion undisturbed. Under the influence of macroeconomics and other factors, RevPAR continued to be under pressure. With regard to the stable operation of the main business under cost optimization, due to the impact of macroeconomics and other factors, in 2019Q3, the company’s RevPAR decline was further expanded compared to Q2.Q3 overall RevPAR downgraded by 3.7% (ADR + 0.2% / OCC-3.4%), Economy / Mid-end / Cloud Hotel RevPAR downgraded by 5 each.7% / 9.0% / 10.3%; same store RevPAR downgraded 6.1% (ADR-2.6% / OCC-3.1%), both inferior to Q2 (Q2 loses 1.5% / 3.6%).In terms of opening stores, in 2019Q3, 197 new stores were opened (7/190 each for direct management / joining, and 29/73/54/41 for economy / mid-end / cloud hotel / management output), with a net increase of 57.In the first three quarters, the company opened 431 new stores (13/418 each for direct management / joining, 70/144/9杭州夜生活网0/127 for economy / mid-end / cloud hotel / management output), with a net increase of 125.As of 2019Q3, the company has a total of 4,174 hotels, with mid- to high-end accounting for 19.5%, signed 663 hotels to be opened.For each business, the slight decline in the company’s hotel revenue was due to the direct operation of store closures and the impact of renovation and upgrading, excluding the relative relative of disturbed profits; Nanshan’s local revenue was stable and profits increased slightly.The company’s gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 93.77%, down by 0.79pct, related to the increase in catering costs;90pct, good overall control. Short-term and macroeconomic expectations change, product optimization in the medium and long-term, joint expansion, expansion, growth, hotel leader forecast and RevPAR breakthrough due to economic impact, with a more obvious double-click / double-kill Davis feature.Looking forward to the future, although the pressure of the hotel’s leading RevPAR base may be improved, whether it can stabilize the rebound still requires macroeconomic trends, and there is still some pressure in the industry’s off-season background.In terms of new stores, although the first three quarters were relatively flat, considering the company ‘s previous concentration of Q4 stores, relying on its current contracted stores and management output reserves, it may still achieve the goal of gradually expanding its stores, helping the company grow gradually.Looking at the medium and long-term perspective, the state-owned enterprise incentive mechanism is gradually improved, subjective kinetic energy is strengthened, and the industry competition pattern is relatively stable. The continuous optimization of products and the expansion mode of franchise continue to support the growth of the industry leader. Risk warnings indicate that the operating performance of the acquisition target has increased greatly; acquisition integration risks; progress in the reform of state-owned enterprises is gradually expected. Tracking macro trends in the short-term, supporting the mid-line joint expansion, maintaining the mid-line “buy” to consider macroeconomic impacts, we lower the company’s EPS0 for 19-21.82/0.96/1.13 yuan (0 for the Air Force).93/1.12/1.33 yuan), PE20 / 17 / 15X.The company’s overall expectations are still historically low. It is recommended to track changes in macroeconomic expectations in the short term. Leading the mid-line + support for franchise expansion, maintaining the mid-line “buy”