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Zhengbang Technology (002157) Performance Express Review Comments: High-speed development of breeding business ranks first-line leader


Zhengbang Technology (002157) Performance Express Review Comments: High-speed development of breeding business ranks first-line leader

Event: The company released the 2019 performance report, and the company achieved revenue of 254 in 2019.

4.2 billion, an increase of 15 in ten years.

05%; net profit attributable to mother 16.

9.7 billion, an annual increase of 777.

53%.

1. Rising pig prices have promoted the profitability of the breeding business.

As the national hog price continues to rise in 2019, according to wind data, the average annual hog price in 2019 is about 22.

27 yuan / kg, up 77 before.

03%.

Affected by rising pig prices, the company’s fat pig sales unit price in 2019 reached 18.

2 yuan / kg, the breeding sector revenue is about 113.

8.2 billion, an annual increase of 49.

25%; gross profit of breeding business is about 23.

4.6 billion, an annual increase of 287.

77%, head profit is about 200?
250 yuan.

Rising pig prices have pushed the profitability of the company’s breeding sector to improve.

2. Production capacity growth and fair incentives guarantee a rapid increase in pig production in 2020.

In terms of the number of 夜来香体验网 breeding pigs, the company’s stock sows increased to 65 at the end of the third quarter of 2019.

30,000 heads; at the end of December 2019, the company’s sow inventory scale reached 119.

With an increase of 750,000 heads, the increase in the number of breeding pigs will provide capacity guarantee for the company’s growth in pig production in 2020.

In December 2019, the company released an equity incentive plan. The first condition for lifting the sales restriction period was that the number of pigs sold in 2020 replaced 60% growth in 2019, that is, the number of pigs slaughtered in 2020 was not less than 925.

440,000 heads.

The increase in the number of breeding pigs provides objective conditions for the company’s growth, and the equity incentive plan injects momentum into the company’s development.

Profit forecast: 杭州桑拿网 The company is expected to produce 9.5 million / 13 million heads of pigs in 2020/2021, and the net profit attributable to mothers in 2020/2021 is estimated to be 85 billion / 100.

8.6 billion, corresponding to 3 EPS.

46/4.

11, the target price of 27.

68 yuan, give a buy rating.

Risk Warning: 1.

Sudden major epidemic risk: Large-scale epidemics such as African swine fever or avian influenza will occur during the livestock breeding process, which will result in the death of livestock and livestock, distorting the consumer psychology of most people, shrinking market demand, and affecting industries and relatedProfitability of the business.

2.

The price is lower than expected risk: The price of livestock and poultry meat rises or falls more than the cost increase, which affects the profitability of the industry and related companies, and there is a risk that future performance will not continue to grow or even decline.

3.

Raw material price fluctuation risk: The output and price of the main raw materials and agricultural products used by the company’s production and operation are affected by uncontrollable factors such as weather and market conditions. If the price of main raw materials changes in the future, it will affect the profitability of the industry and related companies.
4. Listing of non-pestemic vaccines: The effective listing of non-pestetic vaccines can fundamentally eliminate the spread of non-influenza epidemics, a large number of dechemicalization progress will be disrupted, and pig prices may not rise as expected.

5. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the slaughterhouse operation time and operation rate were lower than expected, pig prices were hindered, and consumption was lower than expected